Wednesday, 5 August 2009

still going on about a "recovery"

The media continues to drone on about an economic "recovery". There have been some small signs of positive change. People are so hopeful, not realistic. The full impact of the "credit crunch", the bail out of the US auto industry and the travails of the US housing industry are yet to be realized. You can't force it. There is just too much slack in the system -- too much supply / capacity and not enough demand to absorb it.

We have seen improvements in the US stock markets. This is -not- an indication of a recovery.

I predict that stocks will hem and haw. we will see some increases. typically the summer months (August) is slow as many traders are on vacation. September and October are typically "down" months. No reason to expect any different this year.

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